> So should I take my chances and hope for the best on HotelTonight & friends on/just before arrival? Or should I bite the bullet and pay lots now, to avoid having to sell a kidney if rates go up even more? (And no, I can't change my travel plans.)

The last thing I would do is "take my chances" on a business trip. You need that trip no matter what, so you're in no position to gamble.

Also, my understanding is that you don't pay that price yourself, your company does. Having to spend those $500 from your pocket after all the taxes seems like a big deal (and it is), but it's much less of a problem for your company to write off a $500 expense. On the other hand, if you gamble and have issues with your trip later on, **that will be a big deal** for both you and your company.

Also, I would advice against booking the hotel yourself, unless it is your direct responsibility. If your company has people responsible for bookings, by all means let them handle the situation. You'll save yourself from the risks of doing something wrong, which you don't want to take when considerable amounts of money are involved.