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I need to get some Euros before going on holiday in early August.

With the EU Referendum coming up in the UK on 23rd June 2016, my question is, When is the best time to buy Euros? By best, I mean, when would I get the best exchange rates.

I'm looking for advice from sources such as travel companies and any non-biased government sources. I am not looking for biased or political opinions.

I will buy the Euros with GBP, some in cash, rest will go on a card. (Multi Currency Travel Card)

closed as off-topic by JonathanReez Supports Monica, fkraiem, Tor-Einar Jarnbjo, phoog, mts Jun 3 '16 at 12:20

  • This question does not appear to be about traveling within the scope defined in the help center.
If this question can be reworded to fit the rules in the help center, please edit the question.

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    What do you mean by best? Best is a qualitative subjective measure. I assume you mean more advantageous in terms of currency exchange rates. Could you please specify this in your question? – JoErNanO Jun 3 '16 at 10:50
  • What currency are you seeking to buy it with? Why are you buying cash and not using a more sensible method? – CMaster Jun 3 '16 at 10:51
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    If prices and exchange rates were predictable anyone could make free money from it without risk (google "arbitrage"). Exchange rates are likely to be influenced by the outcome of the referendum but that is all one can say. If you want to be risk-averse buy now, else wait. – mts Jun 3 '16 at 10:54
  • @JoErNanO Please see edit – Nathan Shoesmith Jun 3 '16 at 10:54
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    I'm voting to close this question as off-topic because it's about currency speculations – JonathanReez Supports Monica Jun 3 '16 at 10:56
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According to a couple of experts interviewed by the UK Telegraph:

Bill O’Neill, head of the UK investment office at UBS Wealth Management, said:

Obviously relative growth rates are part of it, as that always drives the value of currency.

But in Europe it’s a different world. We’re talking about the next potential move for UK interest rates being upwards – we still think that is the case – whereas in the eurozone they have gone further into negative interest rates. So that gap is still significantly in favour of sterling, we feel.

Nandini Ramakrishnan, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, said:

...
In the run up to the referendum, we expect a continued weakness of the pound, but that doesn’t mean further drops at the magnitude we have already seen.

And the Guardian:

(no conclusion)

This Is Money:

We asked a panel of experts without any vested interest in selling you currency, and the consensus was that buying some (but not all) of your holiday money now might be a wise move.

Historical graph for what it's worth: enter image description here

My conclusion? Nobody has the faintest idea...

If you think you can predicit it better than the experts, maybe it's time to change job.

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I can't give financial advice or comment on the markets - for financial advice from people who know what they're talking about, try http://money.stackexchange.com and check what sort of currency speculation related questions they accept before posting - but in general if you need money to travel and the markets are unpredictable, you can reduce your risk by splitting the purchase.

For example, you could buy half now, then save buying the other half until after the referendum.

Or you could buy a third now, a third shortly after the referndum and a third closer to the time of travel.

The exact best configuration depends on your own personal weighing up of the amount in question, how big the risk is in terms of your own finances, and how inconvenient the hassle of changing money multiple times would be.


Update: hope you bought a good chunk of the money before the referendum...

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    Unless you are completely sure how much money you need, do not buy 'all' your money before traveling. Having to sell it back will cost you more than you did save by buying early. I personally never buy money before traveling, I take it out of the ATM, which mostly works out cheaper in the way of costs of money and that is often a bigger saver than a few percent in exchange rates. – Willeke Jun 4 '16 at 12:31

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