According to a couple of experts interviewed by the UK Telegraph:
Bill O’Neill, head of the UK investment office at UBS Wealth Management, said:
Obviously relative growth rates are part of it, as that always drives
the value of currency.
But in Europe it’s a different world. We’re talking about the next
potential move for UK interest rates being upwards – we still think
that is the case – whereas in the eurozone they have gone further into
negative interest rates. So that gap is still significantly in favour
of sterling, we feel.
Nandini Ramakrishnan, global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, said:
In the run up to the referendum, we expect a continued weakness of the
pound, but that doesn’t mean further drops at the magnitude we have
And the Guardian:
This Is Money:
We asked a panel of experts without any vested interest in selling you
currency, and the consensus was that buying some (but not all) of your
holiday money now might be a wise move.
Historical graph for what it's worth:
My conclusion? Nobody has the faintest idea...
If you think you can predicit it better than the experts, maybe it's time to change job.