A Japanese passport holder visiting Canada by land from the US does not need an eTA to apply for admission. If you fly, even if you fly from the US, you do need an eTA, however.
The easiest way to know if you will be accepted or rejected for an eTA is to apply for one. It is possible that your UK immigration history will present problems for your Canadian travel, or it is possible that it might not.
If you do apply for an eTA and are denied, it is likely that whatever causes that denial will also cause you to be denied entry at a Canadian land border, or at a minimum to undergo a lot of extra scrutiny. Again, though, the only way to know with certainty what will happen is to attempt the visit and see what happens.
Note that US immigration is not especially less strict than Canadian immigration; if you are not currently physically present in the US and there is some problem with your immigration history that would prevent you from visiting Canada, it may also prevent you from visiting the US. Yet again, however, the only way to know with certainty is to attempt the ESTA application and the trip and to see what happens.
If you have special concerns and wish to maximize the chances of success, it may be wise to hire a qualified immigration attorney licensed in the country you seek to visit.