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There is information available regarding on-time performance of airlines (and Google Flights includes some info in their routing info) but is there any information available on how many connections are actually missed as a result? For example, on the following routing:

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The layover time is quite short, and the airline is frequently late on these particular flights, but it is within their power to hold the outgoing flight since it's all the same airline, which would reduce the risk for those who just want to get to the next destination that day and don't care if it's a bit late, but don't want to be stuck overnight.

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    It is usually more likely they would hold the second flight if that flight is long-haul (because those are usually less frequent, so the cost for the airline to take care of you in the meantime is greater, and because there is usually more buffer available) than short-haul, especially on routes with lots of flights where they can easily rebook you on the next one. In some cases they will be more willing to hold the flight if it’s the last one of the day, but on the other hand they are sometimes constrained by airport curfew times.
    – jcaron
    Commented Jul 24, 2023 at 9:52
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    Chances they will hold the flight also increase if your trip is somehow covered by a regulation which gets your compensation for delays, but I’m not aware of any in your case. Of course that will extend along a short time, to make sure they don’t have to pay compensation to all the other passengers on that flight!
    – jcaron
    Commented Jul 24, 2023 at 9:59

2 Answers 2

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but is there any information available on how many connections are actually missed as a result?

No. While the airlines do track this information, they don't publish it.

Missed connections are expensive for the airline, so they track this data quire carefully to determine the "minimum" connection time and what itineraries to actually offer and sell. In other words: if a significant number of passengers would miss this connection, they wouldn't be selling this itinerary.

At the end it comes down to your own risk tolerance and how important it is for you to arrive at or before a specific time. No connections is 100% guaranteed, there is always some risk.

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The most basic would be to check a flight tracking website like Flightradar24 or FlightAware for their historical data and compare the landing time with the departure time of the other flight.

This would only work for hard misses (like if the plane came to gate after the other one started departing) and not for soft misses (boarding stops early and this isn't reported in their data)


Not the scope of this question, but still putting it here

For most trains in Germany, Switzerland, Italy and some eastern-French trains, you can use Zugfinder's Connection reliability metric to get an historical sense of your connection

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    Be aware that FR24 usually have take-off/landing times, not gate departure/arrival times. FlightAware usually have both. In some airports there can be a huge difference between those times.
    – jcaron
    Commented Jul 24, 2023 at 10:03

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