0

Starting to plan my 2020 holidays, I was wondering if bankruptcy of such a big travel group from the tourist perspective (of course not the one stranded in one of the resorts) planning a trip in a few month perspective would be beneficial or rather disadvantageous?

Flights

Of course flight ticket prices skyrocketed at first but it was caused by huge number of travellers required to abruptly end their trip and go back home, but it should (and probably already has) returned to normal.

Hotels

Hotels accommodating Thomas Cook clients took great hit because they lost future revenue, but it also means they have plenty of room they should be willing to give away for a reduced price (increasing supply), just to get any income out of them.

On the other hand those who totally depend on Thomas Cook might go bankrupt as well, reducing overall number of rooms (and lowering supply).

And there are clients of Thomas Cook as well, which have (probably) already planned their vacation and are willing to go for a family holiday on their own (or using any other travel agent). They will add to demand.

To sum up

My guesses are

  • flight ticket prices would go up (more people would go on their own which increases demand)
  • hotel prices would go down (some of them would be closed lowering supply but lowered demand should bring prices down)

Am I right or did I miss something? Should I wait with booking a flight and accommodation or use the current situation?

closed as primarily opinion-based by fkraiem, Uciebila, Ali Awan, user89966, Chris H Oct 14 at 14:43

Many good questions generate some degree of opinion based on expert experience, but answers to this question will tend to be almost entirely based on opinions, rather than facts, references, or specific expertise. If this question can be reworded to fit the rules in the help center, please edit the question.

  • I think you are seeing too much from a UK point of view. For flights, it may be correct, but for hotels, especially the larger ones have differentiated clientele. (and in any way, Thomas Cook had not an high share, or it had not failed. – Giacomo Catenazzi Oct 14 at 12:13
  • 1
    @Giacomo Catenazzi I’m not sure you’re right about differentiated clientele, there are plenty of reports about the severity of the impact on the tourist industry in Spain, Greece and Turkey eg bbc.co.uk/news/world-49797807 Thomas Cook failed mainly because of its mountain of debt, not because it didn’t have a decent share of the market theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/23/… – Traveller Oct 14 at 12:43
  • 2
    @Mark Anyone who can give you a reliable answer to that question would be a multi-billionaire enjoying a luxury lifestyle on the back of being able to predict the future. IMHO the usual answer applies - it depends on your risk appetite. If the deal you can get now is what you are willing to pay for where and when you want to go, book it. If you can be flexible re dates, destinations etc and you don’t mind taking a chance that the cost will rise, wait. – Traveller Oct 14 at 12:50
  • @Traveller: for sure some hotels had many British people, short term is devastating (cancelled reservation, no money), but the question is about 2020. If an hotel is in one online booking portal, they get clients from all world. Assuming that no British will go on vacation, they will have less cake to share, but it is not the case, many more hotels will see light reduction of guests, but this will be shared on many more hotels (not just TC). – Giacomo Catenazzi Oct 14 at 13:09
  • 1
    @Giacomo Catenazzi Yes, I agree that on a global level the TC failure is very small. But at a local level the empty hotels (that already probably haven’t been paid for the last 3 months) will need those new clients to start booking and going to them almost immediately, otherwise the loss of trading income and the effect on the hotel’s cash flow could very well mean they won’t be in business by the time 2020 rolls around. – Traveller Oct 14 at 13:15
2

It's unlikely to have a detectable effect other than perhaps some small local markets. Thomas Cook was not all that big: they operated about 40,000 flights per year which is about 1/10 of 1% of the total number of flights that's about 40,000,000/year.

Hotel and flight pricing is heavily based on supply and demand and things like day of the week, season, special events, etc. are likely to create more daily swings in prices than all of Thomas Cook.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged or ask your own question.