I am traveling from Minneapolis to Chicago next Saturday, and I need to be at Symphony Center by 4:45 pm sharp. My schedule is unfortunately somewhat constrained, and my travel options are as follows:
- Amtrak Empire Builder, scheduled arrival 3:55. This is somewhat expensive and the timing is quite tight; if the train is more than 45 minutes late, I'll be late for my show.
- Greyhound Bus, scheduled arrival 3:15. This is more reasonably priced and gives me an hour and half window, so it is my current preference.
- Driving. I can certainly leave early enough to be on time, but I dislike long drives and would prefer not to do this unless it's the only reliable option.
My question is how reliable these Amtrak and Greyhound routes are, and if either of them can reliably get me there within the window (say, >90% chance). I know that both Greyhound and Amtrak have reputations for running late, and my own experiences with them have been mixed, but I don't have a great sense of how common or severe delays are and I've never taken this particular route.
I'm hoping for an answer based either on experience with these companies and/or this particular trip, or based on recent performance data for these routes if such data is available.