When a consulate or embassy retains a visa applicant's passport, it may be part of its process, and not an indication of a visa decision, either positive or negative.
As with many, you may be experiencing what is referred to on this site as post-submission anxiety, and the application-status tag I added explains:
The status of a visa application that has been submitted, but not yet returned to the applicant. Questions about application processing time, questions about how to determine the status of a given application, and questions about cancelling an application should use this tag. Include applicant's nationality, type of visa applied for, and submission date/location to help expedite an answer. Also for questions about post-submission anxiety.
The visa process is especially difficult for individuals who have a low tolerance for ambiguity. These people react in different ways, some want to know the application status throughout the day and others exhibit 'post-submission-anxiety'...
"post-submission anxiety" refers to an end-user state where...
- They submitted the application without lots of planning;
- Then they started surfing the net for more info;
- At that point they may (or may not have) found the guidance;
- They may (or may not realize) that the application has problems; and
- Now they are flipping out.
These questions arise from a transient condition that will be resolved when they receive the decision. There is very little anyone can do to alleviate someone's post-submission anxiety. And few people can evaluate open-ended questions like "What are my chances of refusal?" without prescient abilities anyway.