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I mapped NRT-SIN on www.gcmap.com. I cannot quite tell if it crosses in to the new China East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ECS ADIZ).

If the airline disregards the ECS ADIZ China declared in November of 2013, perhaps as instructed by a government, will I likely enter the ECS ADIZ flying from NRT to SIN?

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Per GCMap, the route flies clearly south of Japan's Okinawa island chain, and thus does not enter the ADIZ. Of course actual flight routings will vary from the ideal great circle route, but usually not by much.

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(courtesy Great Circle Mapper)

Also, Singapore has stated that they will file flight plans with Chinese authorities. Not entirely sure if this affects all flights to/from Singapore, or just ones operated by Singaporean carriers though.

Also also, I don't see the Chinese shooting down passenger airplanes anytime soon, or even scaring them with fighter jets, it would be really bad PR for China's "peaceful rise".

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ADIZ is of course also not a total exclusion zone, it's a zone in which the declaring country proclaims their right to deny entry and board vessels (a right most likely not recognised by everyone else, which might lead to military clashes, see Gulf of Sidra incident for example). –  jwenting Dec 6 '13 at 6:23
    
Yes, but Japanese and Korean airlines have stated that they will not be notifying China of overflights, which is (in China's opinion) not complying by ADIZ rules. So far it's looking like they've called China's bluff, as nothing has happened. –  jpatokal Dec 7 '13 at 1:20
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